CRYPTO · STRATEGY TEST

Does “sell in May” work on ADA-USD?

Hold only from November through April and stay in cash for the summer months, on the old market adage.

The rule came out ahead
27.73%
“sell in May and go away” per year
1.24%
Buy & hold per year
+26.49%
Difference
rule vs held, over 8.3 years
80%
Worst drawdown
holding fell 95%
“sell in May and go away” came out ahead of holding ADA-USD over 8.3 years. Across the last 8.3 years of real prices, “sell in May and go away” made 26.49 percentage points a year more than simply buying and holding Cardano (27.73% versus 1.24%).

Every rule on ADA-USD, ranked

200-day moving average timing36.02%
1186% total · worst drawdown 82.3% · in market 40%
Sell in May (hold Nov–Apr)27.73%
663% total · worst drawdown 80.0% · in market 48%
Golden cross (50/200)11.35%
144% total · worst drawdown 84.0% · in market 41%
Buy and hold · benchmark1.24%
11% total · worst drawdown 95.2% · in market 100%
Buy the dip (RSI < 30, hold 20d)-24.79%
-91% total · worst drawdown 95.7% · in market 50%

the last 8.3 years · 3,034 trading days · $0.175 → $0.194

How to read this

One asset over one window is a single data point, not a law. A rule that comes out ahead on ADA-USD may trail holding on the next ticker you try — which is exactly why the free tester exists: change the asset and see whether the edge survives. When it evaporates on a different market, it was fitted to this one.

Note the drawdown column as much as the return. Most timing rules earn less than holding but fall less in a crash, and whether that trade is worth it depends entirely on whether you would actually have held through the worst of it.

Method

All strategies are measured from the same starting bar so the comparison is like-for-like. Signals are read from the previous close and the next day's return is applied — no lookahead. Prices are dividend-adjusted so buy-and-hold is not handicapped. 0.05% cost per switch. No leverage, no shorting.

Test the same rule on something else

SPYQQQDIAIWMAAPLMSFTNVDATSLAAMZNGOOGLMETANFLX
the 200-day moving average on ADA-USDthe golden cross on ADA-USDbuying the dip on ADA-USD
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Vorrik Research publishes tests of publicly discussed trading strategies using public market data. Where a test was also run with our own money, the article says so. It is factual reporting of what happened in historical and past live tests — not investment advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Past results never predict future results.