Does “sell in May” work on MSFT?
Hold only from November through April and stay in cash for the summer months, on the old market adage.
Every rule on MSFT, ranked
| Strategy | CAGR | Total | Worst DD | In market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy and hold — benchmark | 22.84% | 667% | -37.1% | 100% |
| Golden cross (50/200) | 21.54% | 502% | -28.0% | 79% |
| 200-day moving average timing | 14.57% | 250% | -40.3% | 79% |
| Sell in May (hold Nov–Apr) ← this page | 9.79% | 152% | -39.8% | 50% |
| Buy the dip (RSI < 30, hold 20d) | 6.86% | 93% | -33.3% | 27% |
10 years · 2,512 trading days · $50.112 → $393.35
How to read this
One asset over one window is a single data point, not a law. A rule that wins on MSFT may lose on the next ticker you try — which is exactly why the free tester exists: change the asset and see whether the edge survives. When it evaporates on a different market, it was fitted to this one.
Note the drawdown column as much as the return. Most timing rules earn less than holding but lose less in a crash, and whether that trade is worth it depends entirely on whether you would actually have held through the worst of it.
Method
Signals are read from the previous close and the next day's return is applied — no lookahead. Prices are dividend-adjusted so buy-and-hold is not handicapped. 0.05% cost per switch. No leverage, no shorting.
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