STOCKS · STRATEGY TEST
Does the golden cross work on MSFT?
Buy when the 50-day average crosses above the 200-day (the “golden cross”) and sell on the “death cross” back below it.
Holding came out ahead
21.33%
golden cross per year
25.30%
Buy & hold per year
-3.97%
Difference
rule vs held, over 9.2 years
28%
Worst drawdown
holding fell 37%
Holding MSFT came out ahead of the golden cross over 9.2 years. Across the last 9.2 years of real prices, simply buying and holding Microsoft made 3.97 percentage points a year more than the golden cross (25.30% versus 21.33%). The rule did give a gentler ride: its worst fall was 28.0% against 37.1% for holding — a smoother path, paid for with some of the return.
Every rule on MSFT, ranked
Buy and hold · benchmark25.30%
696% total · worst drawdown 37.1% · in market 100%
Golden cross (50/200)21.33%
492% total · worst drawdown 28.0% · in market 78%
200-day moving average timing15.87%
288% total · worst drawdown 40.3% · in market 79%
Sell in May (hold Nov–Apr)8.84%
118% total · worst drawdown 39.8% · in market 48%
Buy the dip (RSI < 30, hold 20d)6.09%
72% total · worst drawdown 33.3% · in market 28%
the last 9.2 years · 2,312 trading days · $62.486 → $497.12
How to read this
One asset over one window is a single data point, not a law. A rule that comes out ahead on MSFT may trail holding on the next ticker you try — which is exactly why the free tester exists: change the asset and see whether the edge survives. When it evaporates on a different market, it was fitted to this one.
Note the drawdown column as much as the return. Most timing rules earn less than holding but fall less in a crash, and whether that trade is worth it depends entirely on whether you would actually have held through the worst of it.
Method
All strategies are measured from the same starting bar so the comparison is like-for-like. Signals are read from the previous close and the next day's return is applied — no lookahead. Prices are dividend-adjusted so buy-and-hold is not handicapped. 0.05% cost per switch. No leverage, no shorting.
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Vorrik Research publishes tests of publicly discussed trading strategies using public market data. Where a test was also run with our own money, the article says so. It is factual reporting of what happened in historical and past live tests — not investment advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Past results never predict future results.