STOCKS · STRATEGY TEST

Does the golden cross work on META?

Buy when the 50-day average crosses above the 200-day (the “golden cross”) and sell on the “death cross” back below it.

No. Over the last 10 years, the golden cross lost to simply buying and holding Meta by 0.72 percentage points a year (16.28% versus 17.00%). It did, however, hold the worst drawdown to -38.8% versus -76.7% for holding — so it bought a smoother ride with some of the return.

Every rule on META, ranked

StrategyCAGRTotalWorst DDIn market
Buy and hold — benchmark17.00%373%-76.7%100%
200-day moving average timing16.42%305%-38.7%70%
Golden cross (50/200) ← this page16.28%301%-38.8%69%
Sell in May (hold Nov–Apr)14.49%282%-49.7%50%
Buy the dip (RSI < 30, hold 20d)-0.14%-1%-67.1%30%

10 years · 2,512 trading days · $122.861 → $593.41

How to read this

One asset over one window is a single data point, not a law. A rule that wins on META may lose on the next ticker you try — which is exactly why the free tester exists: change the asset and see whether the edge survives. When it evaporates on a different market, it was fitted to this one.

Note the drawdown column as much as the return. Most timing rules earn less than holding but lose less in a crash, and whether that trade is worth it depends entirely on whether you would actually have held through the worst of it.

Method

Signals are read from the previous close and the next day's return is applied — no lookahead. Prices are dividend-adjusted so buy-and-hold is not handicapped. 0.05% cost per switch. No leverage, no shorting.

Test the same rule on something else

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the 200-day moving average on METAbuying the dip on META“sell in May and go away” on META
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Vorrik Research publishes tests of publicly discussed trading strategies using public market data and our own capital. It is factual reporting of what happened in historical and live tests — not investment advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Past results never predict future results.