Does the 200-day moving average work on ADA-USD?
Hold the asset while it trades above its 200-day average; sit in cash while it trades below. The most widely repeated timing rule in markets.
Every rule on ADA-USD, ranked
| Strategy | CAGR | Total | Worst DD | In market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sell in May (hold Nov–Apr) | 40.80% | 1827% | -87.5% | 51% |
| 200-day moving average timing ← this page | 39.02% | 1374% | -79.7% | 40% |
| Golden cross (50/200) | 11.55% | 144% | -84.0% | 42% |
| Buy and hold — benchmark | 2.06% | 19% | -97.8% | 100% |
| Buy the dip (RSI < 30, hold 20d) | -31.02% | -96% | -96.6% | 50% |
8.7 years · 3,184 trading days · $0.032 → $0.162
How to read this
One asset over one window is a single data point, not a law. A rule that wins on ADA-USD may lose on the next ticker you try — which is exactly why the free tester exists: change the asset and see whether the edge survives. When it evaporates on a different market, it was fitted to this one.
Note the drawdown column as much as the return. Most timing rules earn less than holding but lose less in a crash, and whether that trade is worth it depends entirely on whether you would actually have held through the worst of it.
Method
Signals are read from the previous close and the next day's return is applied — no lookahead. Prices are dividend-adjusted so buy-and-hold is not handicapped. 0.05% cost per switch. No leverage, no shorting.
Test the same rule on something else
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