INDEX / ETF · STRATEGY TEST

Does the golden cross work on GLD?

Buy when the 50-day average crosses above the 200-day (the “golden cross”) and sell on the “death cross” back below it.

Holding came out ahead
10.06%
golden cross per year
14.17%
Buy & hold per year
-4.11%
Difference
rule vs held, over 9.2 years
28%
Worst drawdown
holding fell 26%
Holding GLD came out ahead of the golden cross over 9.2 years. Across the last 9.2 years of real prices, simply buying and holding gold made 4.11 percentage points a year more than the golden cross (14.17% versus 10.06%).

Every rule on GLD, ranked

Buy and hold · benchmark14.17%
238% total · worst drawdown 26.4% · in market 100%
200-day moving average timing10.16%
143% total · worst drawdown 30.9% · in market 74%
Golden cross (50/200)10.06%
142% total · worst drawdown 27.5% · in market 75%
Sell in May (hold Nov–Apr)9.55%
131% total · worst drawdown 19.2% · in market 48%
Buy the dip (RSI < 30, hold 20d)1.98%
20% total · worst drawdown 15.1% · in market 32%

the last 9.2 years · 2,312 trading days · $116.52 → $394.15

How to read this

One asset over one window is a single data point, not a law. A rule that comes out ahead on GLD may trail holding on the next ticker you try — which is exactly why the free tester exists: change the asset and see whether the edge survives. When it evaporates on a different market, it was fitted to this one.

Note the drawdown column as much as the return. Most timing rules earn less than holding but fall less in a crash, and whether that trade is worth it depends entirely on whether you would actually have held through the worst of it.

Method

All strategies are measured from the same starting bar so the comparison is like-for-like. Signals are read from the previous close and the next day's return is applied — no lookahead. Prices are dividend-adjusted so buy-and-hold is not handicapped. 0.05% cost per switch. No leverage, no shorting.

Test the same rule on something else

SPYQQQDIAIWMAAPLMSFTNVDATSLAAMZNGOOGLMETANFLX
the 200-day moving average on GLDbuying the dip on GLD“sell in May and go away” on GLD
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Vorrik Research publishes tests of publicly discussed trading strategies using public market data. Where a test was also run with our own money, the article says so. It is factual reporting of what happened in historical and past live tests — not investment advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Past results never predict future results.