Does the 200-day moving average work on GLD?
Hold the asset while it trades above its 200-day average; sit in cash while it trades below. The most widely repeated timing rule in markets.
Every rule on GLD, ranked
| Strategy | CAGR | Total | Worst DD | In market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy and hold — benchmark | 11.42% | 192% | -26.4% | 100% |
| 200-day moving average timing ← this page | 9.81% | 136% | -30.9% | 75% |
| Golden cross (50/200) | 9.79% | 136% | -27.5% | 77% |
| Sell in May (hold Nov–Apr) | 8.73% | 129% | -19.2% | 50% |
| Buy the dip (RSI < 30, hold 20d) | 2.08% | 23% | -15.1% | 34% |
10 years · 2,512 trading days · $128.98 → $369.37
How to read this
One asset over one window is a single data point, not a law. A rule that wins on GLD may lose on the next ticker you try — which is exactly why the free tester exists: change the asset and see whether the edge survives. When it evaporates on a different market, it was fitted to this one.
Note the drawdown column as much as the return. Most timing rules earn less than holding but lose less in a crash, and whether that trade is worth it depends entirely on whether you would actually have held through the worst of it.
Method
Signals are read from the previous close and the next day's return is applied — no lookahead. Prices are dividend-adjusted so buy-and-hold is not handicapped. 0.05% cost per switch. No leverage, no shorting.
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