STOCKS · STRATEGY TEST

Does “sell in May” work on DIS?

Hold only from November through April and stay in cash for the summer months, on the old market adage.

The rule came out ahead
2.09%
“sell in May and go away” per year
0.89%
Buy & hold per year
+1.20%
Difference
rule vs held, over 9.2 years
52%
Worst drawdown
holding fell 61%
“sell in May and go away” came out ahead of holding DIS over 9.2 years. Across the last 9.2 years of real prices, “sell in May and go away” made 1.20 percentage points a year more than simply buying and holding Disney (2.09% versus 0.89%).

Every rule on DIS, ranked

Sell in May (hold Nov–Apr)2.09%
21% total · worst drawdown 52.0% · in market 48%
Buy the dip (RSI < 30, hold 20d)1.36%
13% total · worst drawdown 35.8% · in market 42%
Buy and hold · benchmark0.89%
9% total · worst drawdown 60.7% · in market 100%
200-day moving average timing0.75%
7% total · worst drawdown 28.3% · in market 53%
Golden cross (50/200)0.04%
0% total · worst drawdown 51.2% · in market 49%

the last 9.2 years · 2,312 trading days · $98.075 → $106.42

How to read this

One asset over one window is a single data point, not a law. A rule that comes out ahead on DIS may trail holding on the next ticker you try — which is exactly why the free tester exists: change the asset and see whether the edge survives. When it evaporates on a different market, it was fitted to this one.

Note the drawdown column as much as the return. Most timing rules earn less than holding but fall less in a crash, and whether that trade is worth it depends entirely on whether you would actually have held through the worst of it.

Method

All strategies are measured from the same starting bar so the comparison is like-for-like. Signals are read from the previous close and the next day's return is applied — no lookahead. Prices are dividend-adjusted so buy-and-hold is not handicapped. 0.05% cost per switch. No leverage, no shorting.

Test the same rule on something else

SPYQQQDIAIWMAAPLMSFTNVDATSLAAMZNGOOGLMETANFLX
the 200-day moving average on DISthe golden cross on DISbuying the dip on DIS
Get the next autopsy

We test one strategy people swear by and publish whatever the data says — including when it says the strategy doesn't work. Free, no pitch.

Vorrik Research publishes tests of publicly discussed trading strategies using public market data. Where a test was also run with our own money, the article says so. It is factual reporting of what happened in historical and past live tests — not investment advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Past results never predict future results.