CRYPTO · STRATEGY TEST

Does the 200-day moving average work on XRP-USD?

Hold the asset while it trades above its 200-day average; sit in cash while it trades below. The most widely repeated timing rule in markets.

Holding came out ahead
-8.41%
200-day moving average per year
10.71%
Buy & hold per year
-19.12%
Difference
rule vs held, over 8.3 years
91%
Worst drawdown
holding fell 83%
Holding XRP-USD came out ahead of the 200-day moving average over 8.3 years. Across the last 8.3 years of real prices, simply buying and holding XRP made 19.12 percentage points a year more than the 200-day moving average (10.71% versus -8.41%).

Every rule on XRP-USD, ranked

Buy the dip (RSI < 30, hold 20d)20.89%
383% total · worst drawdown 73.5% · in market 46%
Sell in May (hold Nov–Apr)15.92%
241% total · worst drawdown 73.5% · in market 48%
Buy and hold · benchmark10.71%
133% total · worst drawdown 83.3% · in market 100%
Golden cross (50/200)-8.23%
-51% total · worst drawdown 92.1% · in market 43%
200-day moving average timing-8.41%
-52% total · worst drawdown 91.4% · in market 42%

the last 8.3 years · 3,034 trading days · $0.552 → $1.286

How to read this

One asset over one window is a single data point, not a law. A rule that comes out ahead on XRP-USD may trail holding on the next ticker you try — which is exactly why the free tester exists: change the asset and see whether the edge survives. When it evaporates on a different market, it was fitted to this one.

Note the drawdown column as much as the return. Most timing rules earn less than holding but fall less in a crash, and whether that trade is worth it depends entirely on whether you would actually have held through the worst of it.

Method

All strategies are measured from the same starting bar so the comparison is like-for-like. Signals are read from the previous close and the next day's return is applied — no lookahead. Prices are dividend-adjusted so buy-and-hold is not handicapped. 0.05% cost per switch. No leverage, no shorting.

Test the same rule on something else

SPYQQQDIAIWMAAPLMSFTNVDATSLAAMZNGOOGLMETANFLX
the golden cross on XRP-USDbuying the dip on XRP-USD“sell in May and go away” on XRP-USD
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Vorrik Research publishes tests of publicly discussed trading strategies using public market data. Where a test was also run with our own money, the article says so. It is factual reporting of what happened in historical and past live tests — not investment advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Past results never predict future results.