CRYPTO · STRATEGY TEST

Does buying the dip work on SOL-USD?

Buy when RSI drops below 30 — the textbook “oversold” signal — and hold for 20 trading days.

No. Over the last 6.3 years, buying the dip lost to simply buying and holding Solana by 105.66 percentage points a year (8.50% versus 114.16%). It did, however, hold the worst drawdown to -71.4% versus -96.3% for holding — so it bought a smoother ride with some of the return.

Every rule on SOL-USD, ranked

StrategyCAGRTotalWorst DDIn market
200-day moving average timing124.85%10449%-64.4%50%
Buy and hold — benchmark114.16%11384%-96.3%100%
Golden cross (50/200)94.49%4481%-77.3%52%
Sell in May (hold Nov–Apr)45.76%945%-90.3%48%
Buy the dip (RSI < 30, hold 20d) ← this page8.50%66%-71.4%39%

6.3 years · 2,301 trading days · $0.951 → $73.71

How to read this

One asset over one window is a single data point, not a law. A rule that wins on SOL-USD may lose on the next ticker you try — which is exactly why the free tester exists: change the asset and see whether the edge survives. When it evaporates on a different market, it was fitted to this one.

Note the drawdown column as much as the return. Most timing rules earn less than holding but lose less in a crash, and whether that trade is worth it depends entirely on whether you would actually have held through the worst of it.

Method

Signals are read from the previous close and the next day's return is applied — no lookahead. Prices are dividend-adjusted so buy-and-hold is not handicapped. 0.05% cost per switch. No leverage, no shorting.

Test the same rule on something else

SPYQQQDIAIWMAAPLMSFTNVDATSLAAMZNGOOGLMETANFLX
the 200-day moving average on SOL-USDthe golden cross on SOL-USD“sell in May and go away” on SOL-USD
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Vorrik Research publishes tests of publicly discussed trading strategies using public market data and our own capital. It is factual reporting of what happened in historical and live tests — not investment advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Past results never predict future results.