INDEX / ETF · STRATEGY TEST
Does the 200-day moving average work on TLT?
Hold the asset while it trades above its 200-day average; sit in cash while it trades below. The most widely repeated timing rule in markets.
Holding came out ahead
-3.14%
200-day moving average per year
-1.82%
Buy & hold per year
-1.32%
Difference
rule vs held, over 9.2 years
48%
Worst drawdown
holding fell 48%
Holding TLT came out ahead of the 200-day moving average over 9.2 years. Across the last 9.2 years of real prices, simply buying and holding long-term Treasuries made 1.32 percentage points a year more than the 200-day moving average (-1.82% versus -3.14%). The rule did give a gentler ride: its worst fall was 47.9% against 48.4% for holding — a smoother path, paid for with some of the return.
Every rule on TLT, ranked
Golden cross (50/200)0.64%
6% total · worst drawdown 24.3% · in market 52%
Sell in May (hold Nov–Apr)0.61%
6% total · worst drawdown 31.8% · in market 48%
Buy the dip (RSI < 30, hold 20d)0.21%
2% total · worst drawdown 21.0% · in market 38%
Buy and hold · benchmark-1.82%
-16% total · worst drawdown 48.4% · in market 100%
200-day moving average timing-3.14%
-25% total · worst drawdown 47.9% · in market 50%
the last 9.2 years · 2,312 trading days · $95.592 → $80.71
How to read this
One asset over one window is a single data point, not a law. A rule that comes out ahead on TLT may trail holding on the next ticker you try — which is exactly why the free tester exists: change the asset and see whether the edge survives. When it evaporates on a different market, it was fitted to this one.
Note the drawdown column as much as the return. Most timing rules earn less than holding but fall less in a crash, and whether that trade is worth it depends entirely on whether you would actually have held through the worst of it.
Method
All strategies are measured from the same starting bar so the comparison is like-for-like. Signals are read from the previous close and the next day's return is applied — no lookahead. Prices are dividend-adjusted so buy-and-hold is not handicapped. 0.05% cost per switch. No leverage, no shorting.
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Vorrik Research publishes tests of publicly discussed trading strategies using public market data. Where a test was also run with our own money, the article says so. It is factual reporting of what happened in historical and past live tests — not investment advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Past results never predict future results.