STOCKS · STRATEGY TEST

Does the 200-day moving average work on MSTR?

Hold the asset while it trades above its 200-day average; sit in cash while it trades below. The most widely repeated timing rule in markets.

The rule came out ahead
37.38%
200-day moving average per year
23.61%
Buy & hold per year
+13.77%
Difference
rule vs held, over 9.2 years
68%
Worst drawdown
holding fell 89%
The 200-day moving average came out ahead of holding MSTR over 9.2 years. Across the last 9.2 years of real prices, the 200-day moving average made 13.77 percentage points a year more than simply buying and holding MicroStrategy (37.38% versus 23.61%).

Every rule on MSTR, ranked

Golden cross (50/200)38.53%
1902% total · worst drawdown 71.9% · in market 55%
200-day moving average timing37.38%
1755% total · worst drawdown 68.2% · in market 55%
Buy and hold · benchmark23.61%
602% total · worst drawdown 89.3% · in market 100%
Sell in May (hold Nov–Apr)20.06%
437% total · worst drawdown 87.0% · in market 48%
Buy the dip (RSI < 30, hold 20d)-1.20%
-11% total · worst drawdown 74.8% · in market 37%

the last 9.2 years · 2,312 trading days · $18.452 → $129.6

How to read this

One asset over one window is a single data point, not a law. A rule that comes out ahead on MSTR may trail holding on the next ticker you try — which is exactly why the free tester exists: change the asset and see whether the edge survives. When it evaporates on a different market, it was fitted to this one.

Note the drawdown column as much as the return. Most timing rules earn less than holding but fall less in a crash, and whether that trade is worth it depends entirely on whether you would actually have held through the worst of it.

Method

All strategies are measured from the same starting bar so the comparison is like-for-like. Signals are read from the previous close and the next day's return is applied — no lookahead. Prices are dividend-adjusted so buy-and-hold is not handicapped. 0.05% cost per switch. No leverage, no shorting.

Test the same rule on something else

SPYQQQDIAIWMAAPLMSFTNVDATSLAAMZNGOOGLMETANFLX
the golden cross on MSTRbuying the dip on MSTR“sell in May and go away” on MSTR
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Vorrik Research publishes tests of publicly discussed trading strategies using public market data. Where a test was also run with our own money, the article says so. It is factual reporting of what happened in historical and past live tests — not investment advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Past results never predict future results.